Marsh Model Retrospective
About the Project
Coastal resource managers regularly make decisions that will shape the future of the lands they steward, from restoration planning and habitat protection to infrastructure investments and community guidance. Many of these decisions rely on marsh models to anticipate how coastal systems will respond to sea-level rise and other environmental changes. However, because marsh models differ in their inputs, assumptions, and outputs, it can be difficult for managers to determine which models best fit their needs.
The Marsh Model Retrospective Analysis was developed to address this challenge. Rather than seeking to identify a single “best” model, the retrospective provides a systematic comparison of how multiple marsh models perform when they are given the same starting conditions, datasets, and time periods across a range of geographies. By looking backward, comparing model projections to observed, historical changes in marsh elevation and extent
This effort was shaped by insights from managers, who emphasized the need for:
- Models that are transparent about inputs and uncertainty
- Outputs that are clear and interpretable, and
- Guidance that supports real-world decision-making
Through collaboration between modelers, data specialists, and resource managers, the retrospective analysis is building a consistent data foundation, including historical digital elevation models (DEMs), vegetation layers, and sea-level rise trends, at several pilot sites across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The results will improve understanding of model behavior, highlight data needs, and enhance future predictions of marsh change.
Ultimately, the retrospective analysis aims to equip managers, researchers and funders with the information they need to select and apply marsh models confidently. By improving clarity and consistency across models, this initiative strengthens the foundation for informed, resilience coastal decision-making in the face of rising seas.
Other Resources
2018 Sea Level Rise and Marshes Modeling Workshop Report
2022 Marsh Model Retrospective Workshop Report
Land Managers Want Marsh Models that…
Marsh modelers want land managers to know…
Recording – Briefing On Advancing Retrospective Analysis of Marsh Models in the Southeast
Recording – Briefing on DEMs and marsh changes: results and Recommended Uses
Partners
